The comprehensive geopolitical timeline of the US intervention in Venezuela (2013-2026).
Before the crash, Venezuela was the richest nation in South America. But 95% of export revenue came from Oil. When prices crashed in 2014, the entire social contract collapsed.
Hugo Chavez died, leaving Nicolas Maduro as his successor. Maduro lacked Chavez's charisma and military loyalty, forcing him to rely on patronage and purging to survive.
Inflation hit 1,000,000%. The Bolivar became worthless. Citizens resorted to bartering and mining gold/crypto (Runescape gold) to buy food. The humanitarian crisis exploded.
US declares Venezuela an "Unusual and Extraordinary Threat." This provided the legal framework for all future sanctions, freezing assets of key Venezuelan officials involved in human rights abuses.
Maduro wins re-election in a vote widely condemned as rigged. The opposition, led by the National Assembly, declares the presidency "vacant" due to fraud.
Invoking Article 233 of the Constitution, Guaidó (Head of National Assembly) swears himself in as Interim President. The US, EU, and 50+ nations recognize him immediately.
For 3 years, Venezuela had two presidents. Maduro held the guns (Military) and the territory. Guaidó held the foreign assets (CITGO) and international recognition.
Guaidó and Leopoldo López appear at La Carlota airbase, calling for a military uprising. The High Command (Padrino López) refused to flip. The coup failed by noon.
The Trump Administration sanctions PDVSA directly. US refineries stop buying Venezuelan crude. This was the "Economic Nuclear Option," crippling the state's only revenue source.
The US DOJ indicts Maduro and his inner circle for narcoterrorism, placing a $15 Million bounty on Maduro's head. The conflict moves from political to criminal.
A bizarre, failed maritime invasion by Silvercorp USA (mercenaries) and Venezuelan dissidents. It was a fiasco that handed Maduro a massive propaganda victory against "Yankee Imperialism."
Alex Saab (Maduro's financier) is arrested in Cape Verde and extradited to the US. He was the "Bag Man" who knew where the money was hidden. His arrest terrified the regime.
Desperate for gasoline (refineries were broken), Maduro traded gold bullion for Iranian tankers of fuel. This cemented the Anti-US alliance in the Caribbean.
Unable to dislodge Maduro, the opposition coalition fractured. They voted to dissolve the "Interim Government." The US lost its primary diplomatic vehicle for regime change.
The US and Maduro sign a deal: The US lifts oil sanctions (GL44) for 6 months. In exchange, Maduro promises free elections in 2024.
Biden swaps Alex Saab (the financier) for 10 American prisoners held in Caracas. Critics called it capitulation; the White House called it necessary diplomacy.
MCM wins the opposition primary with 90%+ votes. She is the new "Iron Lady." Maduro, terrified of losing, upholds her ban from public office, violating the Barbados deal.
Citing the ban on MCM, the US reimposes sanctions. The diplomatic path is officially dead. The US realizes Maduro will never leave voluntarily.
While Venezuela collapsed, neighboring Guyana discovered 11 Billion barrels of oil (ExxonMobil). It became the fastest-growing economy on earth.
Venezuela reactivates a 19th-century claim to the Essequibo region (2/3rds of Guyana). This isn't about land; it's about the offshore oil rights attached to the coastline.
Maduro holds a vote asking citizens to annex Essequibo. The vote passes. He unveils a new map of Venezuela including the territory and orders PDVSA to issue drilling licenses there.
Britain sends a warship (HMS Trent) to Guyana. The US conducts flight ops. Maduro calls this an "act of aggression" and mobilizes 6,000 troops to the border.
1. Rally the flag (Nationalism) to distract from the economy.
2. Force the US to the negotiating table.
3. Seize actual resources (Oil/Gold) if the world blinks.
Venezuelan naval patrol fires on an ExxonMobil survey vessel in Guyanese waters. US Navy (4th Fleet) responds. Maduro declares a "State of Defense."
The US establishes a quarantine zone. No tankers enter or leave Venezuelan ports without inspection. This chokes off Iranian fuel and Cuban support.
US Cyber Command executes "Operation Blackout." The Guri Dam control systems and Venezuelan military radar network are taken offline remotely.
Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. Tomahawk missiles target the Russian-made S-300 batteries protecting Caracas to establish air superiority.
Venezuela possesses Sukhoi Su-30 jets and S-300 air defense systems. Formidable on paper, but poor maintenance and lack of parts make them vulnerable.
The US strategy is "Punitive & Containment," not Occupation. No Marines in Caracas. The goal is to degrade the military until the Generals turn on Maduro.
President Lula is trapped. He cannot support US intervention, but he cannot allow Venezuela to annex Guyana (which borders Brazil). Brazil militarizes Roraima state.
China owns 25% of the Stabroek Block (CNOOC) in Guyana but is owed billions by Venezuela. Beijing chooses Oil over Ideology, tacitly allowing the US to protect Guyanese assets.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow offers rhetorical support to Maduro but sends no ships. The "Multipolar World" fails to materialize in the Caribbean.
Crude spikes to $140/bbl initially. However, the market realizes Venezuelan supply was already zero. The real fear is a broader conflict involving Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
Conflict triggers a new exodus of 2-3 million people. Colombia closes the border. The US faces a catastrophic surge at the Rio Grande, complicating domestic politics.
With funds cut off and military assets degrading, Padrino López and the Military High Command arrest Maduro to negotiate amnesty with the US. (The Panamanian Model).
A Transitional Council is formed. The US lifts sanctions immediately to allow Chevron and Eni to repair the oil infrastructure. IMF loans are unlocked.
With the Venezuelan threat neutralized, Guyana becomes the "Qatar of South America." ExxonMobil ramps up production to 1.5M barrels/day.
Interview Takeaway: The intervention is framed not just as resource protection, but under the UN doctrine of R2P to stop the humanitarian disaster.
Interview Takeaway: Note how the 1899 Arbitral Award (International Law) was used by the US to legitimize military force against Venezuela's territorial claim.
No. Guyana is not in NATO. However, the UK and France (via French Guiana) provide logistical support. It becomes a "Coalition of the Willing" rather than a NATO mission.
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC. The cartel condemns the attack but takes no action. Saudi Arabia refuses to cut production to save a member that produces almost nothing.
The Caribbean nations, historically dependent on Venezuelan cheap oil (PetroCaribe), side with Guyana. They prioritize territorial sovereignty over past debts.
1. Maduro's survival instinct outweighed economic logic.
2. The Opposition was fractured.
3. Russia/China provided just enough lifeline to delay the inevitable.
The conflict was a triangle between Caracas (Survival), Georgetown (Resource Sovereignty), and Washington (Energy Security).
The conflict reaffirmed that in the 21st century, Economic Zones (EEZ) are the primary driver of state-on-state conflict, replacing ideological borders.
Billions in military expenditure, disrupted trade routes, and a humanitarian crisis. But the cost of inaction (losing Guyana's oil to a rogue state) was deemed higher.
Post-intervention, Venezuela begins a slow, painful recovery. It will take 20 years to return oil production to 1998 levels. The "Petrostate" model is dead.
"The Venezuela intervention wasn't about Democracy. It was about stability in the Western Hemisphere's energy grid during a time of global chaos."